Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
