Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
